There is no substitute for good in depth handicapping, but if you want a simple horse racing system that will help you to pick some long shot winners, I highly recommend that you use a method like the following one. Using a system to pick winners just makes sense, even if it is a simple system. Like the old saying goes, "Those who fail to plan, plan to fail." So if you are going to a track or OTB, and would like to try to find a good long shot bet, try this...



Use a checklist to see if a horse that is going off at long odds has a chance of winning. The following odds will let you know if it is a long shot.









field size odds

5 horses 6-1 or more

6 horses 8-1 or more

7-9 horses 12-1 or more

10 or more 15-1 or more



The next step is to figure out if the favorite can be beaten, so answer these simple questions.



A few simple ways to decide if the favorite is a legitimate favorite



A. does it have faster speed ratings at today's surface and distance than any other horse in the race and

B. has it raced within the last 40 days?



If the answer is yes to these two questions, don't bet against it.



If the answer to the above questions is "no", then you might have a false favorite and it becomes reasonable to look for a long shot winner. See if any horse that is going off at the above odds qualifies using this simple checklist...



1. Has the horse won at this distance?

2. Has the horse won at this level (same class)?

3. Has the horse raced within the last 40 days?

4. If the horse hasn't raced in the last 40 days, has it ever won off a layoff that is as long as today's layoff?

5. Is the horse picked by at least one public handicapper to finish in the top three finishers?

6. Is the horse being ridden by a better jockey today than in its last race?



If you can find a horse that you can answer yes to at least three of any of the above questions for, then you may have a legitimate long shot bet. But be careful and remember, it is a long shot for a good reason and they don't win very often, but when they do, the payoffs can be substantial.

By: Bill Peterson

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Bill Peterson has been in horse racing for 50 years. "Horse Racing is in my blood." Learn how an insider handicaps horse races by visiting Bill's website Horse Racing Handicapping with Willie's. To see the systems Bill uses, go to Bill's Handicapping Store or True Handicapping