Lets be honest, horse racing is an inexact sport (science?), horses are unpredictable animals which don't always perform according to expectations. Jockeys too have their good and bad days (wrong side of the bed syndrome) and if doping and race fixing allegations are to be believed these too add to the uncertainty of the outcome of the race. No trainer would deliberately race a horse which he didn't think was ‘fit'. But being fit and the horse being at its peak are two different things. Just because a horse won or performed well in it's previous race doesn't mean it's going to do well in it's next race. Why? There are a multitude of reasons, for example, it may just have gone off it's peak or it could be that it's at its peak but so are the others and they're just simply quicker on the day.



The truth is that each horse is ‘capable' of achieving a certain level of performance and will generally in each race, perform within a given ‘band' or performance range. How wide that performance range is determines how good the horse is and how often it will win.









Horses are often ‘handicapped' or given ‘extra weight' to carry during a race to try even out their performance and bring it into line with the other horses in the field. However, think about it. The horse weighs a few hundred kilos and carries a jockey weighing around 7 or 8 stone. What difference is a few extra pounds going to make? Ok, if the extra few pounds are the equivalent of ‘the straw that broke the camels back'. If you took an Olympic runner and strapped an extra couple of pounds to his back, would it really effect his performance dramatically? Probably, not. What would have a greater effect would be if he had a bit of a cold, a minor injury etc . Of course it is also true that horses with the highest handicap generally win, despite the extra weight, mainly because they are better racehorses.



What we're trying to say is that you can't just take a few facts and figures about a horses previous performance and base the outcome of future race on these. There are other factors which have a greater effect but that no one takes into account. There is no such thing as a perfect system, for all the above reasons and many more. Anyone who claims they have one is telling ‘fibs'.



As with casinos, bookmakers have the odds stacked in their favour. What we need to be successful at horse racing is an ‘edge', to shift the odds from the bookmakers favour to the ‘punter'.



This is exactly what punters need, ‘an edge'. How?, by running the race, BEFORE the race is run…..



www.racedaily.com

By: Quentin Brown

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CEREAS is only made available to the Race Daily team at www.racedaily.com. The system has been running for 3 years but was made available after extensive testing and released this year.