Those of you that deliver had a fortune toread approximately of my preceding articles may deliver descend crosswise a write-updiscussing the prognostic divalent behindhand Play-book Execution Penalties, which are flags thrown whenplays break-down, ordinarily on offense. penalisation calls that strike intothis family admit infractions such as: Intentional Grounding,Ineligible Receivers, Illegal Shifts and Motions, Too Many Men onthe Field, and so on.PBEP's are not the lonesome measurement of team penalties that deliver beenshown to be a profitable puppet for bedcover handicapping: Offensive Holding calls are too the groundwork for a situationthat has produced big win concluded the preceding 7 years-- a situationwhich has been highly efficacious eve with lonesome one Primary discipline involved.The discipline I am speechmaking approximately is simple, and involveslooking at teams that currently deliver a higher per-game middling for Offensive Holding PenaltiesAgainst (OHPA) than their flow opponent.As an example, a team that has played 4 games and been flagged 9times for Offensive Holding during this stretch, would deliver an OHPAof 2.25 (9 / 4) and would hence be discipline to this situationslogic furze facing an opposition with an OHPA middling of 2.24 or less.As you mightiness expect, teams with a higher OHPA deliver not been agood fun concluded the preceding 7 seasons. You mightiness be surprised;however, at upright how badly they deliver fared.Since 2001, teams with a higher OHPA deliver been a savage 518-602 (46.3%) ATS furze playacting between Week 4 and 15,creating a benefit of $3,220.00 at 10/11 odds with $110.00 wagers against the team in question. Not bad for a relativelysimple post with 1 Primary discipline (OHPA > OP OHPA) and a'Secondary' precondition (i.e., 'tightener') excluding games veryearly, and rattling latterly in the season.If there is one matter I deliver enlightened through the carunculous ofhandicapping hundreds of NFL games concluded the preceding decade-or-so andstudying uncounted trends during this equal metre period, it's that,the stats that are 'off the beaten track' are ordinarily the ones thatproduce the about profitable 'stand-alone' trends'--meaning, thosethat are based one undivided discipline or at least a minimal total ofconditions.You exit be hard-pressed to get another post based on themore coarse measurements of team skill, such as haste and passingstats, that could raise a alike termination of +/- 85 wins ATS overa 1000-1100 gamy stretch, peculiarly furze it involves lonesome a single'building block', or, 'Primary' condition.The grounds for this is actually moderately simple: about of us knowthat Vegas sets the NFL melody based predominantly on public percept of team strength. This is a charge whicheven about beginner handicappers are cognisant of these days. Sportsbooksget their 10% 'Vig' irrespective of who wins and losses and it'salways been in their outdo occupy to set lines that producebalanced actinide which helps to downplay their quick gamble andmaximize long-term profits.With the cognition that the charge bedcover is more a ware ofpublic sentiment, than genuine team attainment levels in many cases, itbecomes moderately condom to presume that the statistics that assistant to shape populace judgment exit expected be less efficacious athandicapping the bedcover than other, as efficacious stats thatperhaps 'fly-below the radar' of the immense majority of handicappersout there. peg who accompany the lineage grocery exit be comrade withthis concept, which is known as the efficient grocery theory.As an example: if everyone made their wagers based entirely onseason-to-date points derivative for apiece team, Vegas wouldcorrect their lines for this fact and exploitation a method of choosingteams based on points scored alone, would finally production a fat 0dollars profit, if not a loss, concluded the long-haul.This instance is an over-simplification of course, and bettorswill typically subscribe many more things into condition furze makingwagers. Having aforementioned that, there are certain stats and variablesthat are exploited more often-than-not by the middling handicapper, weekin and week out.With-out a doubt, haste and fugacious stats are the measures ofchoice for about novice-to-intermediate handicappers along withother obvious ones, such as, points scored and allowed; 'power'numbers; harm paper data and recent head-to-head results. Mostpeople groundwork their wagering decisions on these kinds of statsbecause they are both comfortable to get and comfortable to understand.As with the financial markets; however, chase the 'herd' ismore expected to wind you (and your bankroll) concluded the slope of acliff, preferably than to the 'pot of gold', and the equal rules applywhen handicapping the sports-betting market.This is not to say that canonical statistics which focalise on suchthings as the efficiency of a team's haste and fugacious gamy areto be ignored. On the contrary, I use these fundamentalmeasurements (expressed as yards-per-play differentials) as role ofa amount of my successful situations. But, a amount of otherconditions ordinarily indigence to be added in ordain to stimulate them trulyeffective in predicting bedcover winners.Getting second to penalties for a moment--beyond the canonical penaltyyardage totals shown for apiece team in the terminal boxscore, the specific types and frequency of certain penalties that teams subscribe areessentially neglected by 99.5% of handicappers, and for the reasonsdiscussed above, these key stats exit too not agent too often intothe melody as a result.Penalty calls are not the lonesome facet of NFL team fun thatsuffers from a want of attention, disdain their ability to revealprofitable situations versus the spread.There happens to be quite a few former statistical gems that alsofall into the 'overlooked' family and one such orifice concerns special teams fun and more specifically, the queen of thiscategory--KRYF, which stands for Kick-off repay Yardage (Average) For.KRYF is a critical stat that is on my 'shortlist' of numbersthat no commodity NFL handicapper should be with-out.It acts as a barometer of total peculiar teams effectiveness on themost important peculiar teams fun of all: the Kick-off return.Kick-offs are a critical consequence because of their ability toswitch a games fuzz in a heart-beat and they supply anopportunity for a team to promptly gobble up determinative yardage thatcan exit them with adequate theatre position, which is key to anychance of a victory, whether it be SU or ATS.Nothing deflates a team that upright finished putting points on theboard more, than an opposition who runs second the ensuing kick-off for40 yards and we all cognise the impact that a actor wish Chicago'skick-return specialist, Devin Hester, can deliver on a game's outcomein the flash of an eye.The league middling for KRYF is ordinarily approximately 22yards-per-return. commodity teams exit get themselves with an averagenear 25 patch crappy repay teams exit be downward nigh 19yards-per-return.KYRF is a stat that I use a lot, and it upright happens to be thebasis for one of the 2 leftover Primary conditions yet to bediscussed. Including the pilot one involving OHPA, this powerful'trifecta' of veto factors spells doomsday for the team unluckyenough to satisfy all of the criteria involved.Here is how KRYF factors into things: I deliver constitute that teamsthat deliver a higher OHPA as fountainhead as a lower KRYF than their flow opponent, deliver been a dark 245-332 (42.5%) ATS since 2001, which about doubles theprofit produced from count at OHPA alone, to $6250.00.As with OHPA, it makes sentience that teams at a disfavour withregards to KRYF are a inadequate bet against the spread. The surprisehere, erstwhile again, is upright how profitable it has been historically,when sporting against this team based on these 2 childlike factorsalone.Now, we are not through quite yet. The terminal significantstipulation that I wish to add too involves peculiar teams, in thiscase-- a compare of Gross back Yardage and Net back Yardage concerning the flow opponent of the team in interrogation is included.Subtracting Net back Yardage (the yardage achieved by a back subsequently thereturn is factored in along with any penalties against the puntingteam) from Gross back Yards (the outstrip a back actually travelledfrom where the chunk was snapped) is an first-class way to count at theability of a team to: A) Execute a back properly, and B)efficiently concealment the ensuing return.Teams with a inadequate back reporting unit or that subscribe ahigher-than-average amount of penalties during the back itself;will see a wider gap between their GPYF and NPYF. Teams that deliver abelow-average amend exit too deliver a glower NPYF by extension, asshorter punts do pack a higher gamble of big returns if coveragepersonnel do not deliver adequate metre to get into right position.The middling gap between a team's GPYF and their NPYF happens tobe 6 yards. By excluding opponents that deliver a GPYF at least 7 yards higher than their NPYF, we effectivelyremove opponents that deliver either inadequate reporting skills on punts, ora frail punter. Ultimately, this is yet another fellate against theteam already prickling from the former factors previouslydiscussed.In compact then: Teams that deliver a higher per-game middling for Offensive Holding Penalties Against (OHPA) along with alower per-game middling for Kick-off repay Yardage For (KRYF)--both in relative totheir flow opponent--are 142-244 (36.8%) ATS since 2001, so yearn as this opponent's Gross back Yardage pattern is no more than 7 yards biggerthan their Net back Yardage per-game average.Based on these 3 Primary conditions (along with the earliertightener that confines things to Week 4 thru 15), we deliver a trendthat has been a ordered success since '01 and has produced aprofit of $8,780.00 at 10/11 odds during this metre period.Rounding things out, are 2 terminal limitations, one of whichexcludes teams who deliver faced a roughneck docket season-to-date (SOS> 0.600) patch the former excludes underdogs of >= 7 points.With the summation of these terminal 2 conditions, the enter isreduced to 89-190 (31.9%) ATS--a orca post that has been adeadly prognosticator of results ATS, 7 age running.A brief count at the stats beneath exit demonstrate that this is a verybalanced sheer that has played on every undivided team in the league,aside from one. And, it is divide moderately evenly between favs anddogs as fountainhead as domicile and departed teams.Here are all the details.(Notes: ASMR stands for middling bedcover Margin Rating. A positiverating indicates a sheer that is stronger than middling versus theline, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the portion of teams in the league that havebeen involved in this post at one metre or another. WT% is the portion of teams that are .500 or amend and SPR is the middling bedcover for teams in this situation. Formore details, please confer Page 13 of my 2007 NFL gamy SheetsGuide.)Situational sheer #109 SummaryPrimary Conditions (Building Blocks)1) Offensive Holding penalisation middling Against (OHPA) >Opponent.2) Kick-off repay Yardage middling For (KRYF) <= Opponent.3) Opponent's Gross back Yardage middling (GPYF) is within 7yards of their Net back middling (NPYF).Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)1) gamy is between Week 4 and 15.2) Team is not an Underdog of >=7 Points.3) effectiveness of docket (SOS), season-to-date, is <= .600.Situation StatsASMR: -0.5Home%: 57.4Dog%: 44.9TDIS%: 96.9WT%: 54.7SPR: -1.0Top Teams: TB(18); BUF(16); MIN(16); MIA(15)Situation RecordOverall (Since '01): 89-190 ATS2007 Season: 10-26 ATS2006 Season: 9-19 ATS2005 Season: 11-32 ATS2004 Season: 17-32 ATSLast 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.2007 WK15--TEN 26 KC 17 (TEN -3.5) W2007 WK15--JAC 29 PIT 22 (JAC +3.5) W2007 WK15--CLE 8 BUF 0 (CLE -6) W