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Simple NFL Systems - #84: Teams coming off a bye week

 
/2008-07-28/

Prior to the 1990 season, NFL handicappers could counting on one programming constant: with-out exception, all teams in the league played apiece and every week of the fixture season.

Teams did not needs all sport on Sunday of course--Thanksgiving day games and Monday dark games were share of the schedule. But, for the about part, all teams in the league had a similar numerate of remain and provision sentence stellar up to their succeeding game.

This all changed in 1990 furze the league's brain-trust came up with a new theme to increment the length of the season--thereby increasing the potentiality revenues from moneymaking ad and TV contracts--with-out actually adding any games to what was an already arduous 16-game regular-season schedule.

Starting in Week 4 of the 1990 season, NFL teams began a rotating docket of
bye week's. 4 teams were off at a time--usually from the similar division--resulting in a tot of 7 dissimilar weeks where lonesome 24 teams were playing.

The conception proved popular decent in its inaugural 3 age of use that the league decided to elaborate the numerate of bye weeks to 2 in 1993 (16 games played complete 18 weeks).

This excess week-off proved to be too often of a hoo-ha for players and coaches and the docket reverted gage to 16 games in 17 weeks in 1994, where it has remained since.

The questions that necessitate to be asked as far as the point-spread goes are clean obvious: Do teams climax off a bye accept an boundary furze facing an opposition with lonesome 6-days rest? And, which teams are more potential to amount out stronger subsequently a bye? peg with losing records, or taking records; teams that disoriented the week before, or peg that won?

Exactly how teams reply to an excess weeks remain is a theme I accept been perusing intimately complete the yore few seasons and the results of this search has yielded a numerate of profitable trends that accept been real effectual against the ranch complete the yore 15 age or so.

about of these trends ask teams that are either climax off a bad effect in the survive plot ahead their bye, or, accept approximately blinding unsavoury or justificatory deficiencies that accept the inclination to ameliorate dramatically furze players and coaches accept the sumptuousness of an excess week to operate on them.

One such lieu involves teams climax off a bye that accept a
gamy unsavoury Holding Penalty fair against (OHPA > 1.6). Teams in this lieu are an amazing
65-29 (69.1%) ATS since 2001.

This does hap to be a 'Simple Systems' article; however, and I wouldn't wait any of you to contain the sentence to forecast OHPA on a hebdomadally foundation (the drift above leave be the sharpen of a succeeding
lieu Spotlight article).

This especial article involves the lieu where a team is climax off a bye week that was
directly preceded by a Clutch loss.

peg of you that accept register approximately of my former articles accept likely amount crossways my definition of 'Clutch wins and losses' before, but, for peg who accept not--a Clutch
red occurs furze a team gives up what proves to be the net tally of the game, in either the 4th stern or overtime, moving them from a level or taking position, into a losing one.

This unsatisfying red united with an off-week directly subsequently seems to be a motive gene for teams in the inaugural plot they sport
subsequently the bye.

Teams climax off the above lieu accept been
39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1994, for a benefit of $2,360 furze wagering $110 to win gage $100 on apiece game.

There is too one junior-grade precondition the can be included with this drift to promote stiffen its results. This precondition involves excluding any teams that had
a higher or compeer numerate of haste yards in their Clutch red prior to the bye. Once this precondition is added, we are leftfield with a lieu that has been a substantial 24-3 ATS since 1994.

Here are all the details.

(Notes:
ASMR stands for fair ranch Margin Rating. A cocksure evaluation indicates a drift that is stronger than fair versus the line, negative--weaker than average.
TDIS% is the pct of teams in the league that accept been involved in this lieu at one sentence or another.
WT% is the pct of teams that are .500 or improve and
SPR is the fair ranch for teams in this situation. For more details, please refer Page 13 of my 2007 NFL plot Sheets Guide.)


System #84 Summary


Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Team is climax off a bye week.
2) survive plot was a Clutch red (CL).


junior-grade Conditions (Tighteners)
1) survive plot haste Yards Against > For (RYA > RYF).


System Stats
ASMR: -1.3
Home%: 58.6
Dog%: 55.2
TDIS%: 62.5
WT%: 34.5
SPR: +1.20
Top Teams: IND(3); CAR(2); CIN(2); DET(2)


System Records
Overall (Since '94):
24-3 ATS
2007 Season: 3-0 ATS
2006 Season: 2-1 ATS
2005 Season: 2-0 ATS
2004 Season: 0-0 ATS


survive 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK11--NYJ 19 PIT 16 (NYJ +9.5) W
2007 WK9--ATL 20 SF 16 (ATL -3) W
2007 WK5--WAS 34 DET 3 (WAS -3.5) W

About the Author:
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics nut and American Football fanatic, has been providing advanced NFL psychoanalysis based against the Vegas item ranch since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles similar this one along with specialized team ratings and taking selections versus the spread, inflict his website at
http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

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