When it comes to handicapping the NFL point-spread, there are many unlike team statistics from retiring games that one can deliberate in an feat to estimate the consequence of an approaching match.

There are of course, a concourse of stats that extend a team's haste and overtake game, exceptional teams unit and defense. Stats kindred to turnovers, penalties, and how teams execute in certain areas, such as the Red-zone, are besides promptly available. To chase things yet further: spirited play-by-plays besides unwrap strategic tendencies that apiece team bequeath take as far as which players on the humanistic are typically spying passes and which defenders are devising tackles--do these stats aid to estimate who bequeath extend the banquet in an approaching game?

With the enlargement and proliferation of many 'situational' vogue team stats for the NFL in recent years, the mutant of Pro-Football seems to take steadfastly entrenched itself in the act 2 slur behindhand Major League Baseball in price of the diverseness and largeness of statistics usable from box scores, spirited books, and former 3rd party sources.

Bettors now take the ability to luck out how efficacious their pet team is at haste the testis between their own 20 and 40 yard-line with 4-6 yards-to-go, for instance, along with hundreds of former statistical splits and situations. Does this appoint 'numbers-overkill' or is there any treasure to such specialized stats?

It's important for the banquet handicapper to recall that, at the end of the day, the majority of stats generated on the humanistic during an NFL spirited sum from one of two canonical plays: a hasten or a pass. Before we can commence to effectively classify out which situations are important and which ones are not, the dubiousness of how we should quantify these 2 central play-calls requires promote consideration.

There are a few unlike schools of cerebration on this issue which fundamentally moil blue to 2 chief choices: to either aspect at things in price of the
yards-per-play generated, or, specify a treasure to a represent depending on whether or not it was deemed to be a 'success' or not.

Yards-per-play stats are clean self explanatory: a team that throws 10 passes that net 120 yards bequeath take a 12.0 yards-per-pass represent average. Teams that run the testis 5 times for 30 yards bequeath take a yards-per-rush medium of 6.0.

Successful represent 'point systems' are slimly more complicated and affect look at the 'context' of the play, namely the blue a team is facing along with the yards-to-go and yet the seduce and sentence leftover in the game. Rather than merely tabulating the yards gained, plays that adjoin 'success criteria' get 1 or more points spell peg that don't get 0.

Analyzing plays in this way is nil new: the theme was commencement forward-looking most 20 age ago in a 1988 reserve coroneted
'The Hidden spirited of Football.

The authors of this ground-breaking operate deliberate that teams mostly win in finally achieving a commencement blue furze
at least 40% of yards-to-go are gained on 1st blue and
60% of yards-to-go are gained on 2nd down. It goes with-out locution that in club for a represent to be deemed a winner in 3rd and 4th blue situations, 100% of yards-to-go bequeath necessitate to be obtained.

So, in this context, a 3-yard increase on 1st and 10 cannot truly be classed as a successful represent (30% of YTG) nor would a 4 grounds increase on 2nd and 8 chase a team blue the humanistic more oftentimes than not, according to the search in 'Hidden Game'.

spell look at retiring plays in price of whether they succeeded or not sounds respectable on paper, furze it comes to their sum effectuality as a creature for predicting
hereafter point-spread winners, they misplace hands-down to the more simplistic
yards-per-play statistics.

It may look to be a surprising result, but, my search has consistently shown that spell straight-forward yards-per-play measurements may look primitive in the expression of more forward-looking slipway of look at the results of haste and overtake plays, they take consistently discovered
more pregnant trends against the aim banquet complete the retiring 15 age
furze they are familiarised for the durability of opponents faced (more on this below).

This is not to say that look at plays from the position of whether they 'succeeded' or not is entirely pointless. As you bequeath see subsequently in this article, I do ease livelihood chase of how oftentimes teams win in overtake and haste situations in connective with YPP (yards-per-play) and these measurements do luck their way into a few of my trends--including the one covered in this article.

And to resolution my originally dubiousness regarding situational stats and the relation merits of the many splits now available: there are actually not a unanimous lot of categories that are meaningful in price of handicapping the spread. I take establish that haste and overtake YPP stats commonly unwrap the most interesting trends furze they are analyzed in the pursuit categories (both on offense and defense):

--By blue (1st, 2nd or 3rd + 4th)
--In the Red-zone
--In the 1st Quarter
--Passes by Receiver (i.e., to Wide Receivers, Tight-Ends and Running Backs)
--When the spirited is 'Late and Close' (i.e., 4th one-fourth in a rigorous game)
--When games infix 'Passing' or 'Rushing' situations (i.e, real leads)

There are former situations that I aspect at as wellspring but, future to a team's
sum ability at haste and overtake the testis (both on offense and defense), these are the future most useful ones.

Things brings us to the post I would equal to search in this article concerning
teams with a downstairs medium 1st blue overtake evaluation for (1DPF) and a
2nd blue hasten evaluation for (2DRF) advantage of < -1.

As I mentioned above, it's important to conform yards-per-play stats according to the durability of the unlike opponents faced season-to-date, in the like situation. The consequent 'YPP rating' reveals whether a team has been acting at a layer that is above, or downstairs average, in the family we are look at.

As an example: a team that averages
3.6 yards-per-play on 1st blue rushes, that achieved this sum spell facing a carboxyl of opponents that on average,
afford up 4.0 yards-per-play in the like situation, bequeath take a 1DRF (1st blue hasten for) evaluation of
-0.40 (4.0 - 3.6).

In this especial case, teams that take a 1DPF evaluation < 0 and a 2DRF advantage of < -1, are a blue
141-195 (42.0%) ATS since 2001.

You may be puzzled as to what I tight by the terminus 'advantage'. This fundamentally describes the equivalence of one teams acquirement layer in a certain post or orifice versus how they twin up with their
stream antagonist crosswise the cable of scrimmage.

As far as this especial drift goes, we are actually talking more most a 'disadvantage' as this post looks at teams that take a 2DRF evaluation that is at least
1 aim worse than their stream opponents
2DRA rating--which is the evaluation of how wellspring they
fight against runs on 2nd down.

Teams that take a 2DRF evaluation of -0.50 that are facing a team that has a 2DRA of +1, would return into this family as would a team with a 2DRF evaluation of +1 that is facing an antagonist with a 2DRA evaluation of +2. confident values ever betoken a better-than-average acquirement layer spell negative--worse-than-average. This is lawful irrespective of whether or not I am analyzing a team's offense (F) or defense (A).

So, teams which are not that efficacious at overtake the testis in 1st blue situations AND take a clear-cut disfavour versus their stream antagonist furze haste the testis on 2nd down, take been a crappy bet to extend complete the retiring 7 years.

spell this drift has shown a considerable net since 2001 based on these 2 elemental conditions lone ($3,990.00 furze dissipated $110.00 to win backwards $100.00 on apiece game), furze we add a 3rd elemental precondition involving a key stat from their late game, things commence to get yet more interesting.

This 3rd and net elemental precondition specifies that the team in dubiousness mustiness besides be orgasm off a spirited in which they had
11 or more successful haste plays--which I bet exploitation the benchmarks laid out in the 'Hidden spirited of Football' in increase to a few former 'tweaks'.

The act 11 does take a fairly sum of signification here: it precisely happens to be the typical
league medium for successful haste plays in a game.

later adding this precondition into the mix, the memorialize for teams involved in this drift plummets to
54-114 (32.1%) ATS complete the retiring 7 age for a neaten net of $5,460.00.

In increase to the 3 elemental conditions, there are 3 former
junior-grade conditions that do to stiffen the memorialize of this drift yet futher.

The most important of these ensures the censure of
teams who are facing an antagonist orgasm off a straight-up dog win which can chase to a let-down post for this opponent, and an increased luck that our pore team bequeath extend (this is a
blackball trend, later all).

Teams that are an underdog of >= 12 points are besides distant as are teams orgasm off an antagonist that averages more than
70 big-rushing yards per-game--an above medium amount.

Oh, and the memorialize shown for the 2005 flavour is not a misprint: this drift was, in fact,
2-21 ATS.

As always, here are all the details:

(Notes:
ASMR stands for medium banquet Margin Rating. A confident evaluation indicates a drift that is stronger than medium versus the line, negative--weaker than average.
TDIS% is the portion of teams in the league that take been involved in this post at one sentence or another.
WT% is the portion of teams that are .500 or ameliorate and
SPR is the medium banquet for teams in this situation. For more details, please refer Page 13 of my 2007 NFL spirited Sheets Guide.)


Situational drift #107 Summary


elemental Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) downstairs medium 1st blue overtake evaluation For (BAVG 1DPF).
2) 2nd blue hasten evaluation Advantage (2DRF AD) < -1.
3) Successful haste Plays For (SRPF) > 10 in Last Game.


junior-grade Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude stream banquet of >= 12 points.
2) antagonist not orgasm off a SU DOG WIN.
3) Last Opponent's Big hasten Yardage For (BRYF) per-game medium <= 70.


post Stats
ASMR: +0.3
Home%: 46.6
Dog%: 62.7
TDIS%: 87.5
WT%: 40.7
SPR: +1.8
Top Teams: BAL(13); ARI(8); CLE(8); TB(7)


post Records
sum (Since '01):
20-94 ATS
2007 Season: 2-10 ATS
2006 Season: 4-15 ATS
2005 Season: 2-21 ATS
2004 Season: 2-10 ATS


Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK17--BAL 27 PIT 21 (BAL +3.5) W
2007 WK14--IND 44 BAL 20 (IND -9) W
2007 WK14--NE 34 PIT 13 (NE -10.5) W

About the Author:
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics addict and American Football fanatic, has been providing forward-looking NFL psychoanalysis based against the Vegas aim banquet since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles equal this one along with specialized team ratings and taking selections versus the spread, inflict his place at
http://www.armchairanalysis.com.