Usually by this time of year, there are the teams at the bottom of the standings which have little to play for other than a better chance in the NBA Draft Lottery. This season it is the same. The teams at the bottom have proven to be bad for multiple reasons and as the season winds down, they are proving to be even more so. The Heat, Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Knicks, Bucks, Clippers and Sonics all come to mind. The information I saw recently had had this group of teams winning only around 25% of their games while being only a little better than 35% ATS over their last ten games as of mid-March. When you exclude those games played against each other, they drop to less than 30% ATS. How do you bet these teams?



Below are five rules in betting on these losing teams. While not applicable in all situations, the rules are a good starting point.









• Just don’t bet on them. But to some people this is like talking to a wall. That is why there are four other rules.



• Bet against them. Only Seattle had as many as five covers ATS in their last ten games. The competing teams covered the spread almost 70% of the time.



• Even a double digit spread is not enough. When these teams are underdogs by 10 or more points, it’s almost as if they have read the obit before the game is played. In these games, the favorite covered the spread almost 80% of the time. Only Seattle covered the spread more than half of the time. Once you take Seattle out of the mix the remaining teams failed to cover the spread almost 90% of the time. It takes real courage or some other quality, which I will not go into here, to go against those odds.



• East=West. Record ATS was just about the same against the East as it was the West. Do not assume that bad teams have an advantage against one division over the other.



• Home court meant little to these teams. With this group, it would have been very costly to bet for them because of a home court advantage. The data showed that in actuality, they were slightly better ATS on the road than at home. I emphasize the slightly. When you think about this, it does make some sense as empty seats at home do not cheer very loudly.



In reality after reading all of these rules, if you have any question as to how to proceed, re-read the first rule and leave it at that.

By: William Dumey

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