There is a lot of debate in horse racing handicapping circles about whether it is more profitable to handicap cheap races or the high stakes races. The Breeder's Cup brings this argument to mind as the richest day in US horse racing showcases the best and fastest horses. Some people cite consistency as the best argument to stick with the better races. The logic behind this angle to horse race handicapping is that if horses are more consistent, that is in better shape and less prone to the ups and downs suffered by the cheap platers then you can use their past performances to gauge how one horse will stack up against another.



A look at the statistics of winning favorites seems to add some viability to this argument, but there is one anomaly. While it is true that generally speaking, the high stakes horses and better quality horses have a better winning average for favorites, indicating that form holds up better as you go up the class ladder, the anomaly is Maiden Special Weight races (MSW). The percentage of winning favorites is very high for MSW's. Furthermore, if you look at the average number of races for those winning MSW's you will find that many win within their first five races of their careers.









So how do we account for the higher percentage of winning favorites in MSW's than in claiming races where it seems that the class and ability of each horse has been established, and why are MSW's so predictable? The reason is that these horses are all non winners, but there can be big differences in ability between two maidens that both qualify for MSW status.



In horse race handicapping the trick is to find the horse with the edge that others fail to see. Unfortunately that is often impossible in MSW's because some just stand out as future stakes contenders while others are obviously horses soon headed for the claiming ranks or those horses who seem to take forever to race up through their conditions.



The problem for handicappers is how to profit from the races, not how to predict favorites or consistency. So we are back to the original question, cheap races or stakes races for profitability? The answer to that question may come as a surprise to you. The most important factor in horse race handicapping isn't the consistency or class of the horses, it is the consistency of the handicapper, you. I recommend you try handicapping all kinds of races and see which ones you seem to have the best success with.



Consistency of the runners can work for you or against you. Other handicappers, particularly the beginners, will look for consistency because typically they like to have a high strike rate to keep them going in their horse race handicapping careers. As handicappers mature they realize that going against the crowd and relying on their own strengths and weaknesses is more important. Sooner or later all handicappers come to that truth.

By: Bill Peterson

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Bill Peterson has been in horse racing for 50 years. "Horse Racing is in my blood." Learn how an insider handicaps horse races by visiting Bill's website Horse Racing Handicapping with Willie's. To see the systems Bill uses, go to Bill's Handicapping Store